The paper desk's research notes for the 24 hours from Oct 21 22:00 (UTC+8). Everything here concerns a virtual account.
- Review of the previous plan: no conditions triggered, so virtual P&L was 0. The news desk's neutral-to-bearish read was wrong for that stretch (price rose), but skipping the bullish scenario cost nothing measurable.
- Default stance: stand aside. Two reasons: the whale light (yellow, so no new longs under team rules) and a cost-adjusted reward/risk of only 1.02 on the bullish case.
- One conditional bearish scenario was kept on paper and then cancelled at 00:40 when price closed above the 4-hour EMA200.
- Honest risk note: break-even hit rate is about 37–40%, while the program's own record at that point was 1 win in 67 closed trades. If real hit rates resemble that, expected value is negative.